Heat Pumps Today

18 Griff Thomas from GTEC explains the policies, mechanisms and funding that are fuelling momentum in this growing sector and how installers can benefit from early involvement. Help the UK meet net zero and grow your business By 2050, heat pumps will be the predominant domestic heating and hot water source for 19 million homes in the UK – a complex challenge in which existing heating engineers will play a key role. The UK was the first major economy to legislate for net zero and we now need urgent action to deliver on our targets. Heat pumps will play a huge role in decarbonising residential heating – a notoriously di‹cult challenge due to the variety of housing stock in the UK (only 15% was built post-1990). Change of this scale creates skills gaps and opportunities for existing engineers; those with the knowledge and experience to understand the complexity of the challenge, and who can design long- lasting low-carbon heating systems that work e‹ciently, whatever the style of the property. It’s estimated that 80% of the 2030’s workforce is already in employment and the government is investing in upskilling installers, providing funding for training and accreditation. February | March 2023 T R A I N I N G Griff Thomas, GTEC What will the heating mix look like in 2050? It's impossible to know the exact mix of technologies, societal and behavioural changes that will be required to meet climate change targets, but we do know that heat pumps will play a key role. Currently, low-carbon heating systems heat around 4.5% of homes; this needs to increase to 90% in 2050 to achieve the required reduction in GHG emissions. The main technologies that are expected to meet heating and hot water demand are heat pumps and hydrogen, with heat networks playing a key role in new developments and commercial applications. Essential energy e‹ciency upgrades for existing homes will also be key, with uplifts to the Building Regulations forcing the hand of change. Heat pumps vs hydrogen There is a lot of talk about the role of hydrogen, however, I do not think it will provide a large share of the heating mix in domestic settings. It is, of course, an important part of the bigger picture, for example, in industry and transport, particularly public transport, long-distance haulage and freight. Several recent studies have concluded that hydrogen alone is unsuitable for home heating. One report from the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) Charitable Foundation found that using 100% hydrogen would increase the cost of home heating by 70% by 2050 compared to natural gas. Meta analysis supports the conclusion that there are too many technical di‹culties to make hydrogen a viable, e‹cient and cost- eŽective domestic fuel when compared to heat pumps. Electrification is our best chance of decarbonisation – installing electric heating systems in homes while simultaneously increasing the share of renewables used to generate electricity. According to the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 report, renewables will make up 88% of electricity generation by 2050, compared to 2% from hydrogen-based fuels. By 2050, electric heat pumps will be the dominant source of heating and hot water in the UK, meeting demand in 19 million homes according to the Committee on