Potato Review

30 POTATO REVIEW JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2021 BREXIT FOCUS If it had not been granted before the end of the transition period, it was hoped that it would be looked at in January 2021. “But there are no guarantees.” Emily warned the process could take up to two years, and it was only in very speci c circumstances that the EU had given equivalency to third countries. “It’s only Switzerland and a very speci c derogation for Canada to export seed potatoes to the EU, while for ware potatoes it is something like 11 countries. “But we have been safely exporting into the EU and the NFU is lobbying to make sure that any goods that could move freely into the EU pre-Brexit can continue to do so.” Assuming equivalency is granted, there will still be technical restrictions on EU trade and likely disruption and delays at the borders, irrespective of whether a trade deal had been struck, Emily said. “A customs declaration will be needed when exporting into the EU. ere’s going to be more paperwork and more of your time required on logistics, such as needing phytosanitary certi cates and meeting other plant health requirements, and being subject to additional inspections.” Without a trade deal, tari s would be imposed by the EU on exported potatoes, at a slightly higher level than those the UK would impose on imports, which would add to costs, she said. ese would create a high tari barrier when sending products to the EU, noted Sarah Baker, AHDB strategic insight manager. “Equally there would be similar barriers to any products coming in.” AHDB analysis suggested in the event of a UK-EU free trade deal, the impact on potato commodity prices would be minimal, with any changes due to the additional trade friction with more checks and paperwork. “If we’re a net importer there would be an upward pressure on prices of about 2%, and vice-versa if we’re a net exporter.” Under the more protectionist UK Global Tari s announced in 2020 there’s a bigger impact on potato prices of nearly 17%. “ at’s an average, and the impact will vary by sector.” Extra documentation e extra documentation required for exporting was an issue, but not insurmountable for seed exporters, suggested Sandy. “As seed exporters we’re specialised and the industry supplies around 100,000t annually outside of the EU which require all of these documents. HOW MUCH DO WE USUALLY EXPORT AND IMPORT, AND ARE THERE ANY OPPORTUNITIES? THE UK uctuates between being net importers or net exporters of fresh ware potatoes, Alice Bailey, senior analyst for potatoes in the AHDB market intelligence team, said, although it was more usual for the UK to be net exporters. Last season the UK exported 175,800t of fresh potatoes, excluding seed potatoes. “On average around 97% of exports will be to the EU, so it shows how key the EU market is for fresh ware exports.” Top destinations included Spain, including the Canary Islands, she said. “ e Canary Islands is less a ected because it has its own set of regulations.” In terms of imports, 66% of fresh imports came from the EU over the past ve years, although it uctuates with nearly 80% from the EU in 19/20. Virtually all frozen potato product imports come from the EU, with the Netherlands (54%) and Belgium (42%) accounting for by far the majority, while 41% of our frozen exports head to Ireland, which is also important for fresh exports. Processing potatoes o ered perhaps the best opportunity post-Brexit, if there was extra capacity in factories, Sarah suggested. “We’re still not growing enough processing potatoes to satisfy demand, so there is a signi cant opportunity in the event of no trade deal to displace some of that imported product which will be facing relatively high tari s.” Between 26,000 and 29,000t of seed is imported into the UK each season, with over 70% of that coming from the Netherlands, Alice said. “In terms of exporting, on average 71% of our seed goes to non-EU countries, with Egypt accounting for nearly 50% of that.” ere was yet to be continuity agreement agreed with Egypt, Sarah pointed out. “ at is important, even though the tari s are lower on seed potatoes, but we have agreed one with Morocco.” Brexit could provide both opportunities and threats for seed exports. While potentially new markets or increased opportunities existed in non-EU markets, there was more concern over keeping existing markets with any tari s on seed going into the EU potentially making exports less competitive. Sandy said: “Some of our near neighbours and current customers are looking at Brexit as an opportunity to reinvent and reinvigorate their seed industry. I’m more concerned about maintaining and securing what we already have.”